CURRENT FORECAST (+2h / +3h / +6h)
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STATION METAR VIS SPREAD +2h +3h +6h
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KJFK 14:51Z 10.0mi 12.0C (low) 0.2% (low) 0.2% (low) 0.0%
↳ Top feature: Saturation (Spread)
Latest METAR KJFK 171451Z 27020G29KT 10SM FEW050 FEW250 03/M09 A2987 RMK AO2 PK WND 26036/1417 SLP113 T00281094 53036=
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EGLL 14:50Z 6.2mi 7.0C (low) 0.8% (low) 0.1% (low) 1.0%
↳ Top feature: Relative Humidity
Latest METAR EGLL 171450Z AUTO 18014KT 150V220 9999 NCD 14/07 Q1014=
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KSFO 14:56Z 10.0mi 5.0C (low) 0.0% (low) 0.3% (low) 0.2%
↳ Top feature: Relative Humidity
Latest METAR KSFO 171456Z 00000KT 10SM CLR 15/10 A3001 RMK AO2 SLP161 T01500100 53007 $=
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CYYT 14:00Z 15.0mi 2.0C (low) 0.7% (low) 0.6% (low) 1.5%
↳ Top feature: Current Visibility
Latest METAR CYYT 171400Z 23029G42KT 15SM BKN011 BKN049 BKN075 BKN160 08/06 A3009 RMK SF5SC1AC1AC1 AC TR SLP197=
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CYWG 15:00Z 3.0mi 5.0C (high) 70.3% (med) 40.6% (med) 32.7%
↳ Top feature: Current Visibility
Latest METAR CYWG 171500Z 17018G25KT 3SM -SN VV024 M14/M19 A2989 RMK SN8 SLP148=
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CYUL 14:00Z 15.0mi 6.0C (low) 1.1% (low) 3.2% (low) 1.2%
↳ Top feature: Current Visibility
Latest METAR CYUL 171400Z 26025G40KT 15SM DRSN FEW014 BKN050 M05/M11 A2953 RMK CU2SC5 SLP004=
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SCEL 15:00Z 10.0mi 11.0C (low) 0.0% (low) 0.0% (low) 0.4%
↳ Top feature: Current Visibility
Latest METAR SCEL 171500Z VRB03KT CAVOK 23/12 Q1016 NOSIG=
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SCVM 15:00Z 10.0mi 11.0C (low) 0.0% (low) 0.1% (low) 0.3%
↳ Top feature: Current Visibility
Latest METAR SCVM 171500Z 33009KT 290V360 CAVOK 24/13 Q1015=
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SAEZ 15:00Z 6.2mi 12.0C (low) 0.1% (low) 0.1% (low) 0.3%
↳ Top feature: Current Visibility
Latest METAR SAEZ 171500Z 36011KT 9999 FEW040 SCT100 BKN200 32/20 Q1008 NOSIG=
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SUMU 15:00Z 6.2mi 9.0C (low) 1.8% (low) 0.4% (low) 3.0%
↳ Top feature: Current Visibility
Latest METAR SUMU 171500Z 36010KT 9999 BKN040 BKN070 31/22 Q1009 NOSIG=
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SPJC 15:00Z 6.2mi 4.0C (low) 0.0% (low) 0.0% (low) 0.1%
↳ Top feature: Current Visibility
Latest METAR SPJC 171500Z 22005KT 170V300 9999 SCT012 24/20 Q1014 NOSIG RMK BIRD HAZARD RWY 16L/16R PP000=
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IFR: visibility < 3 miles
IFR-NET — Real-Time Low Visibility Forecasting System
Real-Time Operational Validation Dashboard
updated: | IFR = visibility < 3 miles | horizons: +2h / +3h / +6h
IFR-NET is a forecasting and early-warning system for Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) conditions at airports.
Based on a proprietary machine learning model deployable on standard x86-64 hardware, the system estimates the probability of reduced visibility with lead times of 2, 3, and 6 hours using only real-time public METAR observations.
The system currently monitors a set of global airports continuously and automatically to validate model performance under real operational conditions and support future operational decision-making.
REAL-TIME OPERATIONAL VALIDATION since 02-2026 Each forecast is verified against the corresponding observed METAR report within the forecast time window. ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── STATION N IFR% AUC+2h AUC+3h AUC+6h BRIER+2h ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── KJFK 361 24.1% 0.934 0.908 0.791 0.0875 EGLL 636 5.3% 0.887 0.839 0.721 0.0512 KSFO 596 1.2% 0.987 0.983 0.996 0.0060 CYYT 615 15.1% 0.953 0.938 0.886 0.0586 CYWG 500 6.6% 0.918 0.820 0.763 0.0416 CYUL 524 7.1% 0.938 0.910 0.775 0.0523 SCEL 898 0.0% N/A N/A N/A 0.0004 SCVM 399 5.5% 0.976 0.958 0.878 0.0353 SAEZ 407 0.5% 0.973 0.903 0.895 0.0166 SUMU 108 0.0% N/A N/A 0.752 0.0149 SPJC 74 2.7% 0.875 0.854 0.901 0.0306 ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── AUC = Area Under the ROC Curve | Brier = Probabilistic Mean Squared Error
LATEST OBSERVED IFR EVENTS (+2h, most recent first) ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── DATE/TIME UTC ST VIS(mi) TAF(mi) PROB% TAF IFR-NET ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 2026-03-17 10:16 SPJC 1.86 6.2 0.2% MISS MISS 2026-03-17 07:13 CYUL 1.25 7.0 6.0% MISS MISS 2026-03-17 06:13 CYUL 1.50 7.0 10.9% MISS OK 2026-03-17 05:09 KJFK 0.25 2.0 86.9% OK OK 2026-03-17 04:09 KJFK 0.25 2.0 82.6% OK OK 2026-03-17 03:09 KJFK 0.25 2.0 90.3% OK OK 2026-03-17 02:09 KJFK 0.25 2.0 87.9% OK OK 2026-03-17 01:09 KJFK 0.25 0.8 93.5% OK OK 2026-03-16 23:09 KJFK 0.50 0.8 97.2% OK OK 2026-03-16 22:09 KJFK 0.75 0.8 95.3% OK OK 2026-03-16 21:09 KJFK 0.12 0.8 97.7% OK OK 2026-03-16 20:09 KJFK 0.25 0.8 96.6% OK OK 2026-03-16 19:09 KJFK 0.25 0.5 96.4% OK OK 2026-03-16 18:09 KJFK 0.25 0.5 98.5% OK OK 2026-03-16 17:09 KJFK 0.25 0.5 97.1% OK OK 2026-03-16 16:09 KJFK 0.25 0.2 92.1% OK OK 2026-03-16 15:09 KJFK 0.25 0.2 93.1% OK OK 2026-03-16 14:09 KJFK 0.25 0.5 92.8% OK OK 2026-03-16 13:09 KJFK 0.25 3.0 97.7% MISS OK 2026-03-16 12:09 KJFK 0.25 7.0 94.5% MISS OK 2026-03-16 11:16 SPJC 1.24 1.0 97.0% OK OK 2026-03-16 11:09 KJFK 0.25 7.0 85.3% MISS OK 2026-03-16 10:09 KJFK 0.50 7.0 51.0% MISS OK 2026-03-16 09:09 KJFK 2.00 7.0 61.5% MISS OK 2026-03-15 21:13 CYUL 0.75 7.0 15.1% MISS OK 2026-03-15 17:06 EGLL 2.17 6.2 0.7% MISS MISS 2026-03-15 16:15 CYYT 2.25 1.0 94.8% OK OK 2026-03-15 15:15 CYYT 1.50 1.0 94.8% OK OK 2026-03-15 14:15 CYYT 1.25 1.0 92.2% OK OK 2026-03-15 13:15 CYYT 0.50 7.0 62.0% MISS OK ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── TAF OK = IFR correctly forecast | MISS = IFR not forecast | IFR-NET early warning alert threshold: 10%