IFR-NET — Real-Time Low Visibility Forecasting System
Real-Time Operational Validation Dashboard ● Live Data ● 15K+ Samples

updated:   |   IFR = visibility < 3 miles   |   horizons: +2h / +3h / +6h

IFR-NET is a forecasting and early-warning system for Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) conditions at airports.
Based on a proprietary machine learning model deployable on standard x86-64 hardware, the system estimates the probability of reduced visibility with lead times of 2, 3, and 6 hours using only real-time public METAR observations.

The system currently monitors a set of global airports continuously and automatically to validate model performance under real operational conditions and support future operational decision-making.

CURRENT FORECAST  (+2h / +3h / +6h)
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
STATION   METAR      VIS   SPREAD    +2h               +3h               +6h           
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
KJFK      22:51Z  10.0mi     7.0C  (low)    0.3%     (low)    0.4%     (low)    0.9%   
                                     ↳ Top feature: Saturation (Spread)
Latest METAR KJFK 142251Z 18020G30KT 10SM SCT150 BKN250 24/17 A2970 RMK AO2 PK WND 18036/2203 SLP059 T02390167 $=
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
EGLL      22:50Z   6.2mi     8.0C  (low)    0.0%     (low)    0.2%     (low)    1.1%   
                                     ↳ Top feature: Relative Humidity
Latest METAR EGLL 142250Z AUTO 07005KT 9999 NCD 17/09 Q1018=
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
KSFO      22:56Z  10.0mi    10.0C  (low)    0.0%     (low)    0.0%     (low)    0.0%   
                                     ↳ Top feature: Relative Humidity
Latest METAR KSFO 142256Z 31012G17KT 10SM FEW014 23/13 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP137 T02280133 $=
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
CYYT      23:00Z  15.0mi     3.0C  (low)   14.1%     (low)   15.3%     (low)   17.8%   
                                     ↳ Top feature: Current Visibility
Latest METAR CYYT 142300Z 09006KT 15SM FEW003 BKN079 06/03 A2996 RMK SF1AC7 SF TR LCA FU N SLP153=
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
CYWG      23:00Z  15.0mi    13.0C  (low)    0.0%     (low)    0.0%     (low)    0.0%   
                                     ↳ Top feature: Saturation (Spread)
Latest METAR CYWG 142300Z 30013G19KT 15SM FEW020 FEW045CB FEW250 21/08 A2996 RMK CF1CB1CI1 CF TR CB TR DIST CB W-N SLP152 DENSITY ALT 1700FT=
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
CYUL      23:00Z   8.0mi     2.0C  (low)    7.7%     (low)   20.1%     (low)    6.6%   
                                     ↳ Top feature: Relative Humidity
Latest METAR CYUL 142300Z 00000KT 8SM -RA FEW010 SCT045 OVC100 19/17 A2961 RMK CU2SC2AS4 PRESFR SLP029 DENSITY ALT 1000FT=
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
SCEL      23:00Z   5.0mi    11.0C  (low)    0.0%     (low)    0.2%     (low)    5.8%   
                                     ↳ Top feature: Relative Humidity
Latest METAR SCEL 142300Z 16004KT 8000 NSC 14/03 Q1018 NOSIG=
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
SCVM      23:00Z   0.6mi     1.0C  (high)  90.7%     (high)  66.6%     (high)  85.0%   
                                     ↳ Top feature: Current Visibility
Latest METAR SCVM 142300Z 29005KT 1000 BR OVC005 11/10 Q1020=
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
SAEZ      23:00Z  10.0mi     2.0C  (low)    0.3%     (low)    0.9%     (low)    3.3%   
                                     ↳ Top feature: Current Visibility
Latest METAR SAEZ 142300Z 35003KT CAVOK 02/00 Q1023 NOSIG=
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
SPJC      23:00Z   6.2mi     4.0C  (low)    0.0%     (low)    2.0%     (low)    0.2%   
                                     ↳ Top feature: Current Visibility
Latest METAR SPJC 142300Z 16008KT 140V200 9999 FEW018 23/19 Q1013 NOSIG RMK BIRD HAZARD RWY 16L/16R PP000=
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
IFR: visibility < 3 miles
REAL-TIME OPERATIONAL VALIDATION since 02-2026
Each forecast is verified against the corresponding observed METAR report
within the forecast time window.
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
STATION       N    IFR%   AUC+2h   AUC+3h   AUC+6h   BRIER+2h
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
KJFK       2427    6.1%    0.965    0.947    0.880     0.0310
EGLL       2773    1.5%    0.920    0.888    0.840     0.0158
KSFO       2642    0.3%    0.984    0.970    0.938     0.0026
CYYT       2755   17.9%    0.930    0.907    0.841     0.0783
CYWG       2626    4.2%    0.865    0.834    0.764     0.0308
CYUL       2662    3.5%    0.930    0.912    0.837     0.0318
SCEL       3025    9.4%    0.987    0.977    0.971     0.0321
SCVM       2069   15.6%    0.966    0.947    0.905     0.0521
SAEZ       2521    9.4%    0.949    0.920    0.884     0.0546
SPJC       2208    2.6%    0.937    0.907    0.880     0.0211
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
AUC = Area Under the ROC Curve  |  Brier = Probabilistic Mean Squared Error
LATEST OBSERVED IFR EVENTS  (+2h, most recent first)
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
DATE/TIME UTC       ST     VIS(mi)  TAF(mi)   PROB%    TAF   IFR-NET
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
2026-06-14 22:10    SCVM      0.50      0.9   99.0%     OK        OK
2026-06-14 21:10    SCVM      0.50      0.9   99.0%     OK        OK
2026-06-14 20:10    SCVM      0.31      0.9   98.9%     OK        OK
2026-06-14 19:10    SCVM      0.31      0.9   90.3%     OK        OK
2026-06-14 18:10    SCVM      0.31      0.9   94.5%     OK        OK
2026-06-14 17:10    SCVM      0.31      0.9   92.5%     OK        OK
2026-06-14 16:10    SCVM      0.25      0.9   89.1%     OK        OK
2026-06-14 15:10    SCVM      0.19      0.9   91.2%     OK        OK
2026-06-14 14:10    SCVM      0.19      0.9   89.6%     OK        OK
2026-06-14 13:10    SCVM      0.12      0.9   90.5%     OK        OK
2026-06-14 13:09    SCEL      2.49      0.9   46.7%     OK        OK
2026-06-14 12:10    SCVM      0.12      0.9   81.7%     OK        OK
2026-06-14 12:09    SCEL      2.49      0.9   55.0%     OK        OK
2026-06-14 11:10    SCVM      0.19      0.9   98.4%     OK        OK
2026-06-14 10:10    SCVM      0.19      0.9   98.4%     OK        OK
2026-06-14 04:10    SCVM      1.24      0.9   90.9%     OK        OK
2026-06-14 03:10    SCVM      2.49      0.9   55.7%     OK        OK
2026-06-14 02:10    SCVM      2.49      0.9   78.5%     OK        OK
2026-06-13 22:14    SAEZ      1.86      0.8   21.9%     OK        OK
2026-06-13 19:14    SAEZ      2.49      0.8    1.1%     OK      MISS
2026-06-13 13:14    SAEZ      0.62      0.8   90.0%     OK        OK
2026-06-13 12:14    SAEZ      0.06      0.8   88.1%     OK        OK
2026-06-13 11:14    SAEZ      0.31      0.8   83.0%     OK        OK
2026-06-13 10:16    CYWG      1.00      6.0   83.9%   MISS        OK
2026-06-13 10:14    SAEZ      0.50      0.8   63.1%     OK        OK
2026-06-13 09:16    CYWG      1.00      6.0   21.2%   MISS        OK
2026-06-13 09:14    SAEZ      0.31      0.8   31.6%     OK        OK
2026-06-13 08:16    CYWG      1.00      6.0   18.3%   MISS        OK
2026-06-12 13:14    SAEZ      0.50      0.8   96.8%     OK        OK
2026-06-12 09:14    SAEZ      0.31      0.8   99.2%     OK        OK
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
TAF OK = IFR correctly forecast  |  MISS = IFR not forecast  | IFR-NET early warning alert threshold: 10%
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Proprietary models · Supervised ML
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